Greater than 99%: The 'supercomputer' Celtic title prediction after rivals fail at Paradise

By John McGinley

May 1, 2022

Today didn’t quite result in the Celtic derby victory we were hoping for when it came to piling the misery on Rangers, but it has left the Bhoys in a ridiculously strong position when it comes to the title.

That is undeniable.

Even Giovanni van Bronckhorst has admitted his team failed in their mission today. They needed a win, but they drew. As much as their supporters are putting on a brave face, those are the facts.

It truly leaves Celtic on the brink of a title win that nobody outside of Celtic really believed in or predicted at the start of the season. Some prominent pundits had us finishing third for goodness sake.

No longer, of course. Four points over the next three games are now enough.

Even the fabled ‘supercomputer’ at FiveThirtyEight reckons a Celtic title loss would now be a statistical anomaly.

In fact, they’ve given Celtic a greater than 99% chance of winning the Premiership now, in their latest model following today’s draw at Celtic Park.

The American company run 20,000 simulations from forecasts based on statistical data and a ‘Soccer Power Index’ (SPI).

As they explain themselves: “At the heart of our club soccer forecasts are FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings, which are our best estimate of a team’s overall strength. In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede.

“These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points — a win is worth 3 points, a tie worth 1 point, and a loss worth 0 points — the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.”

Using this methodology, they reckon Celtic will end up on 93 points for the season, with the Ibrox side lagging behind on 87.

According to them, there’s a less than 1% chance of Rangers making the comeback of all comebacks.

Is it over bar the shouting and screaming? That won’t be the message from Ange Postecoglou or the players. They have to stay in a work first mode, rather than daydreaming about finally lifting the trophy.

But it’s on the way. It’s really on the way.

In other news, Celtic release statement on ‘extremely regrettable’ derby incidents.