Celtic are savouring a fantastic start to their 2024/25 Champions League campaign after expertly outgunning Slovan Bratislava on the opening night.
Five different goalscorers combined to thrash the Slovakian champions 5-1 and pick up Celtic’s first three points of the new league phase.
In UEFA’s fresh format, the top 24 sides progress into the knockouts. Those placed 1st to 8th will qualify directly for the last 16, while the teams sitting 9th to 24th will play a two-legged tie to make that stage.
There’s no parachute to the Europa League anymore so Celtic must get themselves into that top 24 for a strong European run – but what will it take?
Tight points margin for Celtic and Champions League progress
Stat company Opta have helpfully run 50,000 simulations of the group stage to give a probability for the number of points needed to progress and there’s a massive difference between eight, nine and ten points.
Finishing with eight points gives teams just a 16% chance of making it into the top 24, which jumps dramatically to 69% if nine points are earned.
Get ten points and there’s a near-guarantee of progression with a 99% chance of finishing in the top 24.
The barrier to getting into the top eight is incredibly high and unrealistic for Celtic to attain unless truly dream-like consistency is achieved.
Even 14 points only give a team a 28% chance of a top-eight finish, jumping to 73% for 15 and 98% for 16.
Celtic success is very achievable
Brendan Rodgers stated weeks ago that his ambition is to guide Celtic into that top 24 and after matchday one it is very much achievable.
Another two wins from seven matches would get the job done, more likely than not. Two wins and a draw would all but guarantee going through to a blockbuster knockout tie.
Home matches against Club Brugge and Young Boys will be especially important, while the Bhoys will fancy avoiding defeat away to Dinamo Zagreb.
Atalanta, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig and Aston Villa are all sterner tests, with three of them on the road.
However, it’s now clear Celtic have the confidence to hold their own at this level. An exciting few months await.
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