Celtic have embodied a sense of defensive solidity in their opening quartet of Scottish Premiership matches this season.
Four league matches have passed, and they have yet to concede a goal, with goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel spending large portions of matches as a spectator between the sticks.
In front of him, Cameron Carter-Vickers and Liam Scales have been commanding in central defence. On either side, Alistair Johnston and Greg Taylor remain consistent in their commitment to support their backline while breaking forward when the opportunity presents itself.
Brendan Rodgers deserves major credit for what has become an incremental defensive improvement. His side adopt the same intensity when carrying out the dirty work as they provide in offensive situations, which both help to dominate opponents.
The Irishman will freely admit it hasn’t always been this way; Celtic have taken time to warm to his methods, and the transition to his tactical framework has needed to steep in boiling water. Now, there are clear signs that their hard work is being rewarded, not only in terms of results but statistically.
The major Celtic differential between this term and 2023/24
Focusing on Celtic’s defensive exploits in the Scottish Premiership, an accurate yardstick would be to compare their solidity this term against where they were last season, so let’s take a look.
According to Fotmob, the Bhoys have conceded a combined XG (Expected Goals) rate of 1.68 in their first four league matches of the season against Kilmarnock, Hibernian, St Mirren, and Rangers. A breakdown can be seen below.
- Celtic 4-0 Kilmarnock – 0.20
- Hibernian 0-2 Celtic – 0.10
- St Mirren 0-3 Celtic – 0.14
- Celtic 3-0 Rangers – 1.24
Now, looking at 2023/24, Celtic were far more susceptible to conceding chances during the infancy of Rodgers’ second tenure. Taking where the Bhoys were at the same stage, the results tell you all you need to know.
- Celtic 4-2 Ross County – 1.13 (conceded twice)
- Aberdeen 1-3 Celtic – 1.76 (conceded once)
- Celtic 0-0 St Johnstone – 0.28
- Rangers 0-1 Celtic – 0.95
Counting up both totals, Celtic have given up a combined 1.68 XG worth of chances at this stage of the season.
Evaluating last term, their rearguard faced 4.12 XG worth, creating a major differential of 2.44 XG shipped.
Brendan Rodgers has already cited Celtic’s biggest improvement
Rewinding to last week, Rodgers offered a summary of why Celtic aren’t giving up as many chances last season when asked what the biggest improvement he has seen from his side this term was in his pre-match press conference before facing Rangers.
He stated: “Our pressing. I always say that passing the ball and pressing are like twins; when you press the game well, you pass the game well. Probably, in the first six months of last season, we weren’t doing either so well with enough consistency.”
“That started to pick up in the second part of the season and really, that last three months of the season tagged onto pre-season.
“Now, if you look at and analyse the games, we’ve had three shots against us in three games (before Rangers clash), so that tells you how hard the team is pressing and working together, and that elevates the football, so I always say our mantra here is respect the 30% because that’s the most important bit when you don’t have the ball, how aggressive you are.”
In short, Celtic’s pressing this term has suffocated the opposition and offered them less chance to build attacking momentum. If in doubt, remember to respect the 30%.
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