Celtic sent £83m warning as UEFA threat looms

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67 Hail Hail have been told by finance expert Adam Williams that Celtic could suffer in more than one way if Scotland lose a Champions League spot.

Reports have revealed that the Scottish Premiership is set to lose a Champions League spot from the 2026/27 season based on the current coefficient rankings.

It would mean that the league winners will be the only side awarded a place in Europe’s premier competition, but having to start from the second qualifying round instead. That will have an effect on Celtic, but how badly?

• READ MORE: UEFA document uncovers how Celtic’s Champions League success triggered £10m windfall for SPFL clubs

Celtic will miss out on millions if they don’t qualify for the Champions League

As it stands, the Hoops will have to settle for a Conference League place if they finish third in the league.

Speaking to 67 Hail Hail, Williams explained that the Hoops could receive less than half of the money they got for reaching the knockout play-offs of the Champions League vs winning the Conference League.

“The difference between a Champions League season and a non-Champions League season for Celtic is night and day in financial terms,” he explained.

“The last season that they were in the Europa League which wasn’t also a Covid-affected season was 2018-19 – they got to the round of 32 that year, and their revenue for the season overall was £83m. If you zoom forward to 2024-25, Celtic’s turnover was £144m.

“Now, that discrepancy can partly be explained by the growth in their matchday and commercial income in the intervening years, as well as the general increase in the value of UEFA’s TV deals since 2018-19, but the by far the biggest driver was the extra revenue Celtic got from the Champions League.

“Last season, they earned about £40m in prize money for reaching the knockout phase play-offs. And because Scotland’s access to European competitions will almost certainly be downgraded from next season, it’s potentially not even a Champions League vs Europa League scenario; it’s a Champions League vs Conference League one. To get a pass to at least the Europa League qualifying round, you’d need to either win the Scottish Cup or the Premiership.

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“If you’re in the Conference League, it’s not just prize money that suffers. You also have one less matchday at Parkhead, which is worth millions, plus you can’t charge the same prices as you would in the Champions League. In the Conference League, you’re only guaranteed about £5m in prize money. Even if you win the competition, you’re probably going to get £18m or so, which is basically half of what Celtic would get as a starting point in the Champions League.

“When there is the risk of revenues fluctuating that much from season, the owners have to budget accordingly, which usually means a more modest wage bill or at least one more heavily weighted towards performance-related bonuses, as well as a less impressive transfer budget.

“The one thing Celtic have in their favour here, however, is that they have huge cash reserves that can soften the blow of getting into the Champions League one season and not the next. The board have taken hoarding cash to the extreme, which isn’t a good strategy in my view, but in this one instance it will protect them somewhat.”