There’s a minimum of £40m up for grabs for Celtic if Brendan Rodgers can negotiate Kairat Almaty over two legs.
Celtic go into the Champions League play-off tie as overwhelming favourites to comprehensively beat Kairat at Celtic Park tonight.
If Rodgers can rack up a healthy win, Celtic’s place in the Champions League will be virtually guaranteed this season. But not one Celtic supporter, including us at 67 Hail Hail are taking anything for granted.
Having said that, with Rangers being battered by Club Brugge last night there is a very real possibility that Celtic could be Scotland’s sole representative in UEFA’s top competition.
And if that happens, how much more money will Celtic be guaranteed? We decided to ask 67 Hail Hail’s finance expert Adam Williams for all the permutations.
Celtic’s ‘value pillar’ earnings if they reach the Champions League
Celtic are hoping to reach the league phase of UEFA’s top competition for the fourth year in a row.
And to highlight how important this is for the club’s balance sheet, Williams breaks down what Celtic will earn as a minimum.
Williams told 67 Hail Hail, “In last season’s Champions League, Celtic earned around £11m from the ‘value pillar’ element of UEFA’s distribution system.
“This is separate to the flat participation fee that every club that reaches the league phase receives. It is also independent of the prize money that they get for their league position, the number of times they win etc.
“The value pillar is decided based on clubs’ five-year and 10-year UEFA coefficients as well as the value of the TV rights in a given club’s country.
“It’s a complicated system and it’s near impossible to know exactly what Celtic might earn, but it’s the TV pool element of the distribution system which is relevant in terms of what Rangers’ elimination might mean for Celtic.”
How much extra Celtic could earn if they make the Champions League and Rangers don’t
With two clubs in the main competition, UEFA split the TV pool which dilutes the earnings Celtic could potentially make.
Looking back at last season’s campaign, Williams predicts how much more Celtic could earn if Rangers are eliminated and the Hoops are not.
Williams continued, “Clubs are ranked based on their media market value, which is then calculated into a points system alongside the coefficient element.
“Based on the analysis I’ve seen on last year’s competition from the Swiss Ramble, the Scottish broadcasting deals’ relevant contribution to the TV pool – which is calculated as about 10 per cent of the overall UK TV pool – was around £6m, and that money was split between Celtic and Rangers, with Celtic getting a few hundred thousand pounds extra because of their coefficient ranking.
“But if Rangers don’t make the league phase at all, that cash will go entirely to Celtic. It will probably be a little more than £6m as well given that the value of the broadcast rights has risen since the last time the data was released. So let’s say it’s an extra £4m that they might not have got otherwise. There is some margin for error in that rough calculation, but it won’t be too far wrong.”
So if Celtic get the job done tonight and in Kazakhstan and Rangers fail in Brugge, then the Parkhead club could rake in a multi-million pound fee.
That money could help increase the gap to Rangers further and help Celtic keep control of Scottish football for the foreseeable future.
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